I don’t think of myself as a particularly optimistic person. Through my career, i’ve been called blunt, sometimes an a**hole (ask my wife), but — until last year — not a particularly optimistic person. And i admit, it confused me. This year, i decided i would embrace it. I DO think Biden will win and i DO believe we will hold on to the Senate. If that makes me an optimist, then so be it. BUT i think i am following the facts.
Earlier this week, in talking to a political journalist, i started a sentence, “ignoring Trump.” “Ignoring Trump,” he asked, “how do you do that?” In the end, he called my explanation “Trump fatigue,” (ok, i am tired of Trump and his various antics) but i laid out a series of fundamentals which are critical why my analysis could ignored Trump.
Top of the list is fundraising. Fundraising is always the first place we can see a real number for a campaign. Emily’s List is actually founded on that principle that suggests a strong campaign (Early Money is Like Yeast). For years, but especially my time in Chicago, people expressed distaste for my including fundraising as a critical indicator of a strength of a campaign. I even had a African-American Member of Congress tell me that “Black candidates didn’t need to raise as much money.” But that was before Barack Obama proved that “the Left” could raising money just like Republicans did.
Well, President Biden is laying the groundwork for a strong campaign. This is certainly helped by the fact that Trump’s biggest campaign expense are the lawyers for his felony trials. His March headline: “Biden campaign has amassed $155M in cash on hand for 2024 campaign and raised $53M last month,” “far exceeding the in-hand total for his Republican opponent, Donald Trump.” “The Democratic National Committee, which is functioning as a part of Biden’s campaign, had $24 million in the bank — almost triple the $8.7 million held by the Republican National Committee.” If that doesn’t calm nerves, nothing will.
And it shows the strength of the grassroots. “A Washington Post analysis of filings by Biden’s campaign and joint fundraising committees found that they had 172,000 unique donors in November 2023, pulling ahead of Trump’s 143,000 donors for the first monthly win of the year.” But Biden is not alone. “Fundraising shows Democrats prepping for battle in both chambers,” Roll Call writes. “Vulnerable House Democrats were more successful fundraisers during the first quarter of this year than Republican incumbents facing similar races, new fundraising disclosures show.”
Just about every Democrat running in competitive Senate races this year significantly out-raised their GOP challenger in the first quarter, according to an Axios analysis of fundraising data.
Why it matters: Incumbents typically have an advantage when it comes to fundraising. But with Democrats scrapping to protect a slim majority, every dollar counts.
- The Senate map is unfavorable for Democrats, with a handful of vulnerable incumbents facing down challengers in purple states.
- But the early fundraising advantage is a boost to the party in its uphill climb to keep control of the chamber.
“In Michigan and Florida, Democratic Senate candidates have also out-raised their Republican counterparts — even with Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) as an incumbent.”
To me, my “optimism” is realism. Because i look at the fundamentals. But i also have the voices of the grassroots in my head, ever since i took on Hope Springs from Field PAC. Granted, that’s partly because i call 10 of our grassroots volunteers every week to talk to them about what/how we are doing knocking on doors in these Swing States. But i also get a lot of texts and emails; people aren’t afraid to reach out, believe me.
Which is perhaps an awkward way to transitioning to the fact that our Georgia organizers (maybe some volunteers, as well) were a little peeved that Georgia wasn’t one of the top 3 states in volunteer turnout last week. And they let me know it. One organizer told me, “We don’t expect you to focus on Georgia every week, but we do EXPECT to be the Top State. We ARE the FIRST STATE!”
And she is right. That’s where this concept was born, where this approach was refined. And, i will just say it, these (mostly HBCU alum) women are competitive. As is my practice, i try to write about (at least) the Top 3 states where we are canvassing each week. And this week, Georgia gets back into the Top 3. Like i said, competitive.
And Georgia has real competition this year. Hope Springs is knocking on doors in 5 of the 14 states that could put an Abortion-related referendum on their November (Arizona, Florida, Maryland, Montana and Nevada). And many of our volunteers walk with these petitions every Saturday.
We are told that the Biden campaign has become “less confident that Mr. Biden can hold on to Georgia” in 2024. But our intrepid volunteers aren’t so sure. There are still a lot of moves left before November, and our job is to build out the best political environment for the President we can before Labor Day. Georgia is a purely Electoral College play; there is no U.S. Senate race on the ballot in Georgia — something that has invigorated the electorate in the last two election cycles — or ballot initiatives. We know that we will have to grind this one out. That’s exactly what i’ve told the organizers and volunteers in Georgia who’ve asked about it. We have to grind this one out.
But the nearly $24 million on television advertising the Biden campaign is spending in Georgia right now is having an effect, making voters more likely to talk to our volunteers and for a longer period of time. And it is something that Hope Springs volunteers are noticing. “Some one should do a study of that!,” one volunteer observed.
330 volunteers came out to knock on doors in Georgia last Saturday. Not as good as our turnout before Easter (3/23 — 357 vols). They knocked on 24,024 doors and talked to 1,645 voters. 1,232 voters answered at least some of our questions on the survey this week.
We continue to find (mostly) minority voters who admit they don’t have the required Voter Photo ID to vote this year. This week, we found 11 voters at their door who agreed they would participate in the next Photo ID Day in their county.
Hope Springs from Field PAC began knocking on doors again on March 2nd in a grassroots-led effort to prepare the Electoral Battleground in what has been called the First and Second Rounds of a traditional Five Round Canvass. We are taking those efforts to the doors of Democrats and unaffiliated voters with a systematic approach that reminds them not only that Democrats care, but Democrats are determined to deliver the best government possible to all Americans.
Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization2024
Hope Springs from Field understands that repeated face to face interactions are critical. And we are among those who believe that Democrats didn’t do as well in the 2020 Congressional races as expected because we didn’t knock on doors — and we didn’t register new voters (while Republicans dud). We are returning to the old school basics: repeated contacts, repeated efforts to remind them of protocols, meeting them were they are. Mentoring those who need it (like first time and newly registered voters). Reminding, reminding, reminding, and then chasing down those voters whose ballots need to be (and can be) cured.
We continue to knock on doors of voters in the Black Belt in Georgia and the suburbs of Atlanta. The Top Issue volunteers found in Georgia on Saturday was The Economy. The second most frequently cited concern in Georgia this weekend were concerns about Healthcare Costs. One voter told us they had been dropped from their Medicaid coverage. And they had missed the deadline because they didn’t know. The third most frequently Issue this week was Political Stability. This had a lot to do with the start of the Trump Trials, something specifically of concern in the Atlanta area.
Biden’s Approval numbers among the voters we talked to was at 51% last Saturday, with a Disapproval number of 8%. Approval of Governor Kemp was 24% and Disapproval was 27% last Saturday. There is no senate race in Georgia this cycle and while we ask if voters approve of the job their senators are doing, we are not tracking that.
Volunteers registered 27 new voters at their door and re-registered 38 voters. We differentiate between the new voters and re-registering voters because brand new voters are often ignored by campaigns and we hope to compensate for that somewhat by having volunteers send them post cards before the election and they will also receive robocalls thanking them for registering.
11 of these new voters were African-Americans who lived in counties that Jhacova Williams had identified with lower voter registration rates among African-Americans than the norm that had survived higher rates of lynchings in the last century. Williams wrote that “Black Americans who reside in counties in the South where there was a higher number of lynchings from 1882 to 1930 have lower voter registration today.” Hope Springs has been using this data to target Voter Registration efforts in those counties in Georgia, North Carolina and Florida. We have been relying on HBCU graduates and Divine 9 alums to reach out in those counties (we usually target 1 or 2 a week).
117 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms. In general, we send these to Democratic elected officials responsible for the requested functions, but if the appropriate office is held by a Republican, we still send it along. For Democrats, though, we encourage them to reach out immediately to the voter who filled out the CSR and let them know they are working on the issue. This credit-taking is enormously valuable to the Democratic office-holder.
3 voters in Georgia completed an Incident Report, as well. A couple other voters expressed concerns about the 2024 elections but did not fill out incident reports because they didn’t say they witnessed voter suppression or intimidation (they just expressed concerns or worries about them). Incident Reports are used to plan Election Protection activities, and will be combined with other, historical incidents and handed over to District and State Attorneys, Attorney Generals and the DoJ Civil Rights Division right before Election Day as a precaution against Election Day Incidents in November. Past polling place activity is a predictor of future voter intimidation or suppression activity.
We knock on the doors of Democratic and Independent voters. At every door, we leave a piece of “show the flag” lit, something that tells them we were there and hopefully reinforces the Democratic brand. The lit focuses on the things voters told us were important to them last fall, aiming to appeal to every voter.
But the main focus of our canvassing right now is the Issues Survey, asking voters for their input and concerns. Voter responses to the questionnaire are entered into VAN and made available to all Democratic candidates who use VAN in the state after the primary. Creating this kind of data isn’t done with a specific goal in mind but has the purpose of engaging voters and creating a dataset that any Democratic candidate can use in opposition to a Republican.
Hope Springs has targeted states that have competitive Senate races and/or the Electoral College in 2024, as well as Congressional Districts that are remapped in ways that offer opportunities or vulnerabilities for Democrats next year (specifically those where a Republican won a Congressional District that voted for Biden in 2022). There is a lot of work to be done! Especially since we have had to expand the map this year.
By starting early, and aiming towards super-compliance with these really, really onerous provisions, Hope Springs from Field seeks to undermine that strategy, while informing voters about the new laws and regulations aimed at them.
We are also — this being an election year — adding the Post Cards to New Voters component back into our Voter Outreach, both New Voters we find at their doors as well as New Voters we target in the Voter File.
Our biggest expense is the Voter File. But it is also a fixed cost. That won’t change as we raise and spend more money. Printing literature is our second largest cost. Printing and mailing our our Post Cards to New Voters is our third cost and paying the fees for ActBlue is the smallest of our monthly costs.
Hope Springs is a seat-of-the-pants grassroots-driven operation. We don’t have employees but we realize that to formalize and professionalize this effort that will have to change.
But our volunteers understand that the work we are doing now, the Early Organizing and Early (in-person) Voter Contact will pay dividends in the Fall GOTV efforts.
Biden’s reelection bid will have to energize the state’s significant Black population, which makes up roughly a third of the battleground state, while facing polls that show the incumbent struggling nationally with the demographic.
Through our conversations with voters now, registering (and re-registering) voters at their doors, offering up opportunities to improve their neighborhood through Constituent Service Requests or protect their polling places and their Right to Vote through Incident Reports, Hope Springs volunteers are creating a more positive electoral environment for Democrats in 2024.
If you are able to support our efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please help:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization2024
If you would rather send a check, you can follow that link for our mailing address at the bottom of the page. Thank you for your support. This work depends upon you!